A poll released before Brazil’s presidential runoff showed incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied
On the eve of Brazil’s runoff, reports on a CNT/MDA poll gave differing results. The Rio Times reported Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of Rio de Janeiro at 50.7% of valid votes and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 49.3%; Al Jazeera gave Bolsonaro 46.3% and Lula 45%. Al Jazeera also cited a Datafolha survey showing 50% support for each.
More context
A CNT/MDA poll released Saturday, Oct. 24, the day before Brazil’s presidential runoff, showed a close race between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of Rio de Janeiro. The Rio Times said the same poll had Bolsonaro at 50.5% and Lula at 49.5% on Oct. 16; Al Jazeera gave the previous week’s figures as 46.8% and 45.9%. The poll interviewed 2,032 voters from Oct. 21 to 23. Separately, Al Jazeera cited a Datafolha survey published Thursday that put both candidates at 50%, after Bolsonaro had led by four points in polls two weeks earlier.
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Verifier’s note
Both report the CNT/MDA poll released on the eve of the runoff and describe Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro as statistically close: The Rio Times gives a 1.4-point gap within the margin of error, and Al Jazeera reports a similarly narrow gap. The other results cover different polls or older polling.