Cook Political Report shifted Michigan’s Senate race from Toss Up to Lean Democrat
Cook Political Report moved Michigan’s 2026 Senate race from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democrat” in its final ratings of the midterm cycle, saying Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed was favored over former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers. Rep. Haley Stevens, whom El-Sayed defeated in the primary, endorsed Rogers on Sunday.
More context
The handicapper’s final Senate ratings for the midterm cycle placed Michigan’s 2026 contest in the “Lean Democrat” category, up from “Toss Up,” on Monday. The nonpartisan handicapper announced the change on X. Jessica Taylor of Cook Political Report said the shift reflected new public and private polling, including a New York Times/Siena poll over the weekend that put Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed ahead of former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers by 11 points. Taylor said operatives on both sides did not expect a double-digit blowout, and noted the poll showed El-Sayed had shored up a weakness with Black voters. Decision Desk HQ rated the race likely Democratic, giving El-Sayed a 75 percent probability of winning a Senate seat.
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Verifier’s note
The Hill reports that Cook shifted Michigan’s 2026 Senate race to lean Democratic, and The Washington Post independently reports the same move from toss-up to lean Democrat. Both were published on November 2, 2026, consistent with the proposed timing.